Forecast on the Hill

 Doncaster Hill was the focus of Manningham Growth and the jewel in the crown. However we seem to be getting further away from those expectations every time we review…

From Francis Day

After trawling through reports and studies regarding the Doncaster Hill strategy, we were amazed at the number of flaky assumptions and flawed reports used by Manningham council to justify Doncaster Hill as a principal Activity Centre.

In 2002 Manningham Council officers and their consultants had forecast the population of Doncaster Hill Activity Centre would increase from about 950 to 8,000 residents by 2021. (later updated to 8,300). 2,500 were forecast for 2006, 5,000 by 2011 and in 2014 the population was expected to reach almost 6000.

However, Census of 2011 indicates the population of Doncaster Hill was only 1,194, compared to 794 in 2006 an increase of only 400 residents, 3,806 less than the 5000 Manningham had predicted.

Manningham Officers and consultant’s had predicted that 4,080 apartments would be completed by 2021.

In the period from 2002 to 2011 only 589 dwellings had been finished an increase of only 184 dwellings, from the 405 completed in 2006. The increase of 184 would have included the 98 apartments completed at 95 Tram Road, subsidised by government.

There were at least two consultant’s reports, commissioned by Manningham, critical to the acceptance of the plan, that involved senior people formerly employed by Manningham Council. This was not improper, but with the benefit of hindsight, given the quality of their reports , it might have been more prudent of council to have engaged expert opinion from further afield.

Francis Day

Manningham Popultion Forecast March 2002 18

Doncaster Hill

The Census population of Doncaster Hill in 2011 was 1,194, living in 589 dwellings with an average household size of 2.31.

Population

Doncaster Hill

2011

2006

Change

Number

%

City of Manningham

Number

%

City of Manningham

2006 to 2011

Population (excluding O/S visitors)

1,194

100.0

100.0

794

100.0

100.0

+400

Males

580

48.6

48.6

393

49.5

48.6

+187

Females

614

51.4

51.4

401

50.5

51.4

+213

Australian citizens

871

73.0

86.8

588

74.1

87.5

+283

Eligible voters (citizens aged 18+)

740

62.0

68.6

501

63.1

68.4

+240

Overseas visitors

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2006 and 2011. Compiled and presented in profile.id by.id, the population experts.

Total dwellings

589

100.0

100.0

405

100.0

100.0

+184

Occupied private dwellings

515

87.6

92.7

361

89.3

93.7

+154

Population in non-private dwellings

4

16

-12

Average household size (persons per dwelling)

2.31

2.76

2.16

2.79

+0.16

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2006 and 2011. Compiled and presented in profile.id by.id, the population experts.

2 Responses to “Forecast on the Hill”

  1. Shannon says:

    There are no high rise apartment buildings currently under construction on Doncaster Hill.

    Despite extensive local and overseas marketing, permit holders are not achieving the necessary presale quotas to enable the procurement of project finance.
    Since the last census, taken in August 2011, only four apartment buildings have been completed.

    “The Pinnacle” at 632 Doncaster Road, Completed in April 2012
    “The Berkley” 18 Berkley Street, (two stages) completed in May 2012
    “The Madison” at 91 Tram Road, completed in June 2012
    Apartment development at 7-11 Berkley Street, completed in December 2013.

    Source doncasterhill.com (completed development)

    Shannon

  2. Rudy says:

    A total of only seven apartment buildings have been completed on Doncaster Hill since February 2002 which includes the government funded affordable housing project at 95 Tram Road.
    The Doncaster Hill high rise strategy was supposed to be completed by the year 2021 but so far less 15% of the planned number of apartment buildings have been built.
    Rudy

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