EXPERTS DIFFER ON ARTERIAL TRAFFIC VOLUMES

The table below left, from a study first conducted in 2001, showed existing traffic volumes along Doncaster Road plus forecast volumes in future years leading up to 2021. Earlier, in November 2000, Manningham Council had released a high-rise strategy plan called Doncaster Hill Strategy 2021

2001 Volume Estimates Click to enlarge

2001 Estimates Doncaster Rd at JJ Tully Drive
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Tram Road Traffic Click to enlarge

Tram Rd Traffic 2015
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Doncaster Road 1. Click to enlarge

Doncaster Rd  2015.
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Doncaster Road 2. Click to enlarge

Doncaster Rd 2015
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The study forecast

 

a reduction of 52% (from 51,535 to 24,688) in traffic volumes along Doncaster Road, east of JJ Tully Drive, after the opening of the eastern freeway extension in 1998.

This forecast market demand for a 20 year time frame had estimated up to 8,300 residents and 10,000 jobs within the area. Coupled with these forecasts were the observations that traffic volumes along Doncaster Road would drop significantly due to the extension of the Eastern Freeway and would allow the expansion of Westfield shopping centre without disrupting traffic flow.

By the year 2021 traffic volumes were expected to fall by a further 8% to 22,730. However, the three traffic profiles above, recently obtained from VicRoads, indicates a troubling mismatch with the earlier volume estimates.

Peak Hour Doncaster Rd Click to enlarge

Peak Hour Doncaster Rd
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The current volumes in Doncaster Road, according to VicRoads  Traffic profiles, already about 20% higher than first predicted, will increase considerably rather than decline as they had anticipated in the 2001 study. A further 800 apartments will be occupied in several major developments due to be completed this year followed by another 2400 in the short term. The massive Bunnings Store in Doncaster Road, which is expected to average more than 3000 customers daily, also has a planning permit approved for the 385 apartments to be constructed above the store. While volumes on Doncaster Road have remained stable in recent years they are expected to increase significantly as Doncaster Hill is developed.

8 Responses to “EXPERTS DIFFER ON ARTERIAL TRAFFIC VOLUMES”

  1. Kim of Doncaster says:

    I find it difficult to fathom why the 2001 traffic study would forecast decreased volumes by 2021. Maybe it was assumed that traffic on Doncaster Hill would become so congested motorists would be forced to seek alternative routes… that might explain it. The VicRoads traffic profiles show much higher traffic volumes but we won’t know until Doncaster Hill is built out and when Council’s 9,500 residents in the residential growth zones take occupation plus the 1,000 homes (2000 residents) planned on the golf links estate are built.

    • Patrick Nolan says:

      The 2001 report could not have predicted future traffic volumes because the full extent of Manningham development programs, which also included the Westfield shoppingtown expansion and the Bunnings store, were not known at that time.

    • Jack of It says:

      Where are the alternative routes? The freeway is chock a block, so to is Middleborough Road and Blackburn Road. Elgar Road is not an alternative because it runs through Doncaster Hill and George Street is useless because it is not a through Road. Who do we blame for all this? The untouchables..the consultants and the planners who will have moved on when the centre reaches gridlock.

      • Lance Keegan says:

        Original estimates of traffic volumes on Doncaster Road after the opening of the eastern freeway, conducted in 2001, indicated decreased volumes of 65% east of High Street. This could not have factored in the Doncaster Hill strategy, the Manningham Residential Strategy or future development on the golf links estate which will add approximately 20,000 residents to the area and only a fraction of the strategies have been developed so far.
        According to the Doncaster Road traffic profiles volumes have actually increased by approximately 20% after the opening of the freeway extension.
        Lance

  2. Dean Spencer says:

    Don’t leave out the their cronies at Vcat! After I had retired in 2005 I became interested in local government, in particular planning and environment, and at one stage had considered running for Council at Manningham. Along the way I got involved in some of the resident Vcat appeals which in hindsight was a complete waste of time. My involvement ended after I attended a Vcat appeal against a council approval for a Hotel to be built opposite the council offices. On advice from planning officers it was endorsed by a newly elected group of councillors. Despite Vcat approval the Hotel did not proceed due mainly to the issues raised in the resident submissions.
    In closing the hearing the Vcat member said: “I will be going out to inspect this property in the next few days so if you see me there please don’t approach me etc. etc”. Which was almost word for word what a Vcat member had said at the closure of a previous hearing. Apparently they all make similar statements to give the impression that they really intend to visit the site and not just go to Google maps.

    Dean Spencer

    • Edified says:

      You don’t say why you didn’t nominate for the Council?
      The requirements are not very onerous -10 or 11 meetings each year for a $27,000, tax free.
      There are people that spend more effort off council than some of those on council.
      You couldn’t be any worse a Councillor than those who are content to saddle us with a ridiculous Bunnings store with 300 apartments above it as a part of the promised “Urban Village” on Doncater Hill.

      • Dean says:

        I think Bunnings are to have 385 apartments built in two stages and I believe most of them will be very small one bedders. It is my understanding that Bummings want a co-developer to build the apartments but as far as I know have not been successful thus far. Bunnings were very obliging they gave me two phone numbers of the coordinators of the project 0734525645 and 0298467261 this was back in 2014…Can you imagine the traffic from both Westfield and Bunnings (if it ever gets off the ground)
        As far as standing for council is concerned I have decided against running for family reasons.

  3. Nev says:

    Manningham council have revised the Doncaster Hill high rise apartment population estimates upwards from 8,300 to 10,000 people by 2031 (the higher estimates are due to Manningham approving much smaller apartments) add that to the number of residents in the growth zones 1 & 2, the Main Road precinct, the expected population on the Golf Links Estate, the seven million visitors by expected 2031 and you have the planning bureaucracy gone mad.
    The areas earmarked for redevelopment around two major arterial roads are already carrying heavy traffic through Doncaster Hill to other suburbs.

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