Fifteen Hottest Years Prior To 2015 Were All Increased By An Average Of 0.05 C.
“The ranks and temperature anomalies in the annual reports represent the values known at the time when each report was issued. The actual ranks will change as subsequent years are added to the dataset. “Anomalies may change slightly as missing or erroneous data is resolved”.
The chart on the left shows the amended anomalies, (the amount of warming above 13.9o Celsius, the 20th century average annual global temperature for combined land and ocean surfaces, for each of the fifteen hottest years prior to the Paris Conference in 2015.
The original anomalies for each individual year can be obtained by going to NOAA climate report and submitting the year.
Unfortunately the NOAA global temperature reports appear to be only available from 1997 onward and the previous yearly reports appear to have dealt with global weather events only.
The raised temperatures from an otherwise flat period have been made to look more in proportion to the increased anomalies of world temperatures in 2015 and 2016.
For example, 20014
was increased by (0.05 C) to 0.74 C, in 2013 by (0.05 C) to 0.67 C, in 2012 by (0.05 C) to 0.62 C and in 2011 by (o.06 C) to 0.57 C. The largest increases from the original reports in individual years occurred in 2010 by (0.08 C) to 0.70 C, in 2009 by (0.08 C) to 0.64 C, in 2005 by (0.08 C) to 0.66 C and in 2006 by (0.07 C) to 0.61 C.
The 1997 NOAA report, on left, recorded a temperature of 16.91 C when it used the wrong baseline average, instead of 13.90 C plus the anomaly of 0.42 C, it used a baseline of 16.50 C when it posted a global temperature of 16.91 C, three degrees warmer than the average global temperature of today.
Statement from Tom Karl of NOAA…1997 “For 1997, land and ocean temperatures averaged three quarters of a degree Fahrenheit (F) (0.42 degrees Celsius (C)) above normal. (Normal is defined by the mean temperature, 61.7 degrees F (16.5 degrees C), for the 30 years 1961-90)”.
“With the new data factored in, global temperature warming trends now exceed 1.0 degree F (0.55 degrees C) per 100 years, with land temperatures warming at a somewhat faster rate”. “It is likely that the sustained trend toward increasingly warmer global temperatures is related to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases”, Karl said.
This might explain why the temperatures of previous years were not listed due to NOAA using the wrong data in the decades earlier.
NASA recorded a temperature anomaly of 0.47 C for 1997 and the Met Office 0.39 C, which when added to the 20th century baseline of 13.90 C, recorded temperatures of 14.37 C and 14.29 C respectively.
Various climate data sets have put the average world temperature for the period 2011-2017 at 14.63 C which is nearly one degree Celsius above the average for the decade 1881-1890. However there had been no significant warming until after the decade ending in 1980, (13.95 C to 14.63 C) to the period ending in 2017, an increase of 0.68 C.
The average so far for the 2011 to 2017 period, which includes the El Nino event in 2014-2016, would have been greater had it not been for cooler years in 2011 to 2013, 2017 and 2018. The IPCC have stated that at least half the warming since 1951, when recorded temperatures beforehand were regarded as unreliable, were due to anthopogenic activities.
Section 14 2.2.2. 2001 IPCC assessment report
In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible, in climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. This reduces climate change to the discernment of significant differences in the statistics of such ensembles.