IPCC FORECASTS ON SEA LEVEL RISE

Under the IPCC Business as Usual emissions scenario, an average rate of global mean sea level rise of about  6 cm per decade, 60 cm over the next century (with an uncertainty range of 3 – 10 cm per decade) mainly due to thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of some land ice. The predicted rise is 20 cm in global mean sea level by 2030, and 65 cm by the end of the next century. Fortunately their predictions have not eventuated in the Sydney Harbour.

Click to enlarge

Australia is lucky to possess the high-quality, 128-year-long tide gauge record from Fort Denison (Sydney Harbour), which since 1886 indicates a long-term rate of sea-level rise of 0.65 mm a year, or 6.5 cm a century. Lucky, because 60-year-long oceanographic atmospheric oscillations mean a true long-term measurement of sea-level rise can be made only when such a record is available.

New research says hundreds of islands in the Pacific are growing in land size, even as climate change-related sea level rises threaten the region. Scientists at the University of Auckland found atolls in the Pacific nations of Marshall Islands and Kiribati, as well as the Maldives archipelago in the Indian Ocean, have grown up to 8 per cent in size over the past six decades despite sea level rise.

Scientists at the University of Auckland found atolls in the Pacific nations of Marshall Islands and Kiribati, as well as the Maldives archipelago in the Indian Ocean, have grown up to 8 per cent in size over the past six decades despite sea level rise.

Maldives   Click to Enlarge

The majority of islands in each of those nations has either got larger or stayed very similar in size,” he said. “So, you know, one of the remarkable takeaways of the work is that these islands are actually quite dynamic in a physical sense.”

Coastal geomorphologist Dr Paul Kench said coral reef sediment was responsible for building up the islands. All the islands that we’re looking at, and the atoll systems, comprise predominantly of the broken up corals, shells and skeletons of organisms on the coral reef, which waves then sweep up and deposit on the island,” he said.

A composite showing the historical shoreline of Jeh, compared to how it has changed in more recent years.

3 Comments

  1. Talford says:

    Saudi Arabia and China would not be spending Billions in the development of the Maldives if they believed what the IPCC have predicted.

  2. Ken Smale says:

    The Maldives have grown by eight percent and NOT the 1.6 mm per decade decrease as some of the global warming brigade have declared.

  3. Janet Love says:

    Follow the money. Rich countries pouring money…and rich people buying massive Beachfront mansions and atop coastal cliffs.

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